Instapundit.com:
notes that Europe's declining population may have negative implications.
IS EUROPE DISAPPEARING?If Europeans don't watch out -- actually, do more than just watch out -- there will be a lot fewer of them by the end of this century.
A team of Vienna-based researchers reported in the journal Science last week that the continent reached a demographic watershed in 2000. After decades of delayed childbearing and smaller families, Europe is now in "negative population momentum."
"Over the coming decades," they added, the trend "will challenge social security and health systems, may hinder productivity gains, and could affect global competitiveness and economic growth."
Is this the result of European social-welfare schemes? Take it away, Mickey Kaus!
That's not the half of it. I will quote the conclusions straight from the article:
Policy Implications Over the coming decades, the decisive shift to an older age structure in Europe will challenge social security and health systems, may hinder productivity gains, and could affect global competitiveness and economic growth. It could also strain relations among generations, particularly between those who are on the contributing and receiving ends of public transfer programs. It may also diminish social cohesion, particularly if increasing labor demand leads to substantial immigration from other cultures. Although population aging is the main focus of population-related social, economic, and political concerns in Europe, there is also a deeply rooted fear of population decline associated with a possible weakening of national identity and loss of international political and economic standing.Policy discussions have primarily focused on adjusting to given demographic trends, by making structural adjustments to pension systems, labor markets, and health and fiscal systems. With already very high tax rates, however, there is a limit to how much governments can squeeze out of a shrinking labor force. Hence, discussions are beginning to turn to policies that could influence demographic trends themselves. Because substantial increases in immigration remain politically unpopular, fertility may increasingly be considered as a policy variable. Childbearing could come to be considered a "social act" rather than a purely private decision.
In 1976, a set of policies was enacted in East Germany that included much improved child-care facilities, financial benefits, and government-supported housing if a woman became pregnant. As a consequence, period fertility in East Germany, which had declined almost in parallel with West Germany, increased from 1.5 to 1.9. The mean age of childbearing stayed below 25 years, while it increased to more than 28 years in the West. In contemporary Western Europe, however, there is pronounced public resistance to explicitly pro-natalist policies. This is partly because of infamous birth promotion programs in past fascist regimes and partly because births are often viewed as an obstacle for women pursuing careers and therefore not something the government should promote as an end in itself. Family policies in Europe today are based instead on an equal-opportunities rationale and aim to help women combine child rearing with employment. Such policies seem to have had a small, if any, effect on period fertility.
Policies that aim to affect the timing of births rather than family size may be more acceptable. Such policies would have to address some of the prime reasons for continued childbearing delay, including inflexible higher education systems, youth unemployment, housing markets, and especially career patterns built around traditional male life-course models. Revamping the conventional sequence of life course transitions can also help solve conflicts between work and family. Health benefits may provide an additional rationale. A continued delay in childbearing has not only led to burgeoning numbers of infertility treatments but also to increasing medical concerns about health risks for mother and child associated with late pregnancies.
Halting the trend toward higher mean ages of childbearing would significantly moderate population aging and decline in Europe. Changes in the timing of births have been pointed out as a possible avenue for slowing population growth in developing countries, in that case by encouraging delays in childbearing. Here, we are suggesting the reverse: that discouraging further delays in childbearing could help confront the population-related challenge faced by Europe.
